30.05.10 | Notes

Remedies for European laboratories
Federico Tobar
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Euro zone crisis begins to impact on the pharmaceutical market and puts the dilemmas facing governments, which until now had been avoided through his powerful budget.

Crisis, what crisis?
Even in a context of global crisis of capitalism, the pharmaceutical market remains one of the fastest growing. Only in the last five years witnessed an expansion of more than 50% worldwide. Both the American continent and the world, the United States are leading the pharmaceutical market in the Americas remains Canada. Together they represent 50% of global market and doubled its market in the last six years.

The International IMS Consulting, which specializes in probing the drug market, forecast to October 2009 there will be a global pharmaceutical market growth of 4 to 6% in 2010, based on U$S constant, exceeding 825 U$S billion, led by a strong recovery in the short term the U.S. market. It also predicts a growth of 4-7% by 2013 is expected to expand to U$S 975 billion at that date. This arises has to consider the impact of global macroeconomics, the interrelation between mature and innovative products and the growing influence of health care access and funding of generic drugs following the market demands.

Market trends
Suspiciously so miraculous, the "North American Pandemic" not only reversed the loss of some large multinational pharmaceutical companies that were beginning to be affected by the maturities of their patents and generic market entry, but seems to have generated a stroke on the market whole.

IMS identifies the following elements as forces operating in different directions on the pharmaceutical market in the coming years:
a) Strong growth in North American market in the short term.
b) Impact of the interrelationship between innovation and patent loss. Consistent with the trend of recent years, it is expected that the next 5 reflect a significant imbalance between the introduction of new products and the loss of patents. This is the main factor that is seen as limiting the growth of the global market.
c) Markets "farmaemergentes" acquire an increasing role .. Although economic conditions significantly affect some markets (notably Russia, Turkey, South Korea and Mexico) countries are expected to contribute to global growth in 12 to 14% in 2010 and 13-16% by 2013. The pharmaceutical market in China will contribute 21% to global growth by 2013.
d) Access to health services and their funding is under severe pressure in the sense of limiting access to non-generic drugs. Is expected for the next five years are given strong protests to the effect of limiting the use of innovative therapies and original drugs.

The global trend report IMS concluded that a series of events in 2009 that may have long-term effect on the global market and should also be considered. First, the course of health reform in the United States. Second, the pace of legislative regulatory actions in other countries. Third, the magnitude of the pandemic H1N1. And finally, time and magnitude of the global economic recovery.

Industry reaction to the European crisis
Greece and Spain, so far, the countries most affected by the economic crisis have taken on fiscal adjustment policies. As expected, this adjustment was to pharmacies.

Spain is one of the most important cost countries in the world. While drugs are sold at cheap prices consumption is very high and most are funded with public resources. The government assumes a cost of EUR 13.61 per prescription. For these reasons in the last twelve months, the pharmaceutical expenditure grew by 2.88%.

The policy the government has implemented to contain pharmaceutical expenditure has been to control prices and restrict sales listings for products covered by the health system. In recent weeks, as part of the adjustment of government has announced a price cut would involve savings of about 1,000 million Euros. But it is a second policy that comes in addition to trimmings in order of EUR 1,500 under Royal Decree-Law 4/ 2010.

In reaction to these policies, the industrial chamber of drugs in Spain (Farmaindustria) warned the government that if it reduces drug prices will cause a "domino effect" similar to that of Greece. They said that this would generate losses, which in 2011 " exceed 10%, also cause "a reduction in the Spanish pharmaceutical market size of around 20%," the loss of 5,000 direct jobs and 20,000, with indirect jobs, and will make third-sector companies have to think about closing.

A remedy for people or remedies for the industry?
Faced with a similar situation in Latin America, most likely would have been for the solution of the governments towards fiscal adjustment needs to pass through the restriction of public funding making citizens bear a greater share of the economic cost of medicines. While on our continent, 70% of drug expenditure is financed by households, in Europe the figure is 40%.

Around here, the option has already been taken long ago. So a retired Spanish has covered their drugs at 100% while the PAMI beneficiaries each year spend a higher percentage of their income on medicines. At the same time, the institution maintains its drug budget frozen by the agreement made with the industry for which waives any regulatory action.

But in Europe things are different. If the Spanish industry is now claiming it is not because the viability of your business is in danger. Not at all because I am concerned about the health of citizens. It does this because he knows that at this time their warnings have high political impact. They argue that in a time of recession would be inconsistent to restrict an industry with high added value and significant weight in exports. They also know that makes an important ally, commercial pharmacies, which also reduced and activities are affected by adjustment policies.

This puts the government in the face with the dilemma of who to prioritize. Must maintain public access to medicines? (Which involves maintaining low prices and operate on rational choice by restricting the list of products to cover)? Should prioritize economic sector "star" now threatened not only by the crisis but also by the rise of emerging markets outside the old continent? As stated Matthew 6: 24 "No one can serve two masters ...." Either it heals the industry or it heals people.

Ricardo Peidro
Secretario General

Revista IEPS

4to Informe de Investigación


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